Market Sentiment Weakens, Iron Ore Prices Drop to a New Low Since March [SMM Commentary]

ArcelorMittal's cumulative investment in Liberia is approaching $4 billion, covering mining, railway and port facilities, power and social infrastructure, ArcelorMittal Liberia CEO Michiel van der Merwe said at the Liberia International Mining and Energy Conference and Expo. The company expects iron ore exports to exceed 20 million mt in 2027, compared with less than five million tons in 2024, while its longer-term plans envisage mine production of 30 million mt. The Phase II expansion includes Liberia's first large-scale iron ore concentrator, producing premium concentrate for international steelmakers, supplying existing mills and newer plants using technologies designed to reduce carbon emissions. Van der Merwe said approximately $800 million has been invested in rehabilitating and expanding government-owned railway and port infrastructure connecting the company's mines in Nimba County with Buchanan Port. Other mining companies seeking access would need to finance the additional capacity required for their operations, although spare capacity could be used in the meantime. He reaffirmed support for multiple users on the Tokadeh–Buchanan railway, with the Liberian government determining access. An independent company is expected to operate the railway from 2030 under operating principles currently being formalized. In January 2026, ArcelorMittal stated that its $1.8 billion expansion had brought cumulative investment in Liberia to $3.5 billion. The project includes the concentrator, railway improvements, port upgrades and two power plants. The amended Mineral Development Agreement extends the company's operations to 2050, with a right to renew for another 25 years. ArcelorMittal is also studying further iron ore expansion beyond 20 million tons annually. [SMM Iron Ore]

At the annual joint International Steel Trade Association (ISTA) and National Steel Association (NSA) 2026 meeting in Leeds on Oct. 22, participants said the UK steel market remained supply-driven, with demand for most products largely weaker but not contracting, and expected prices to rise in 2027. The start of the UK's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2027 and recent safeguard quota changes were in focus, with concerns over whether UK domestic production can fill the supply gaps left by a tighter import environment. Data from the UK Department for Business and Trade showed that, as of Oct. 26, the residual country quota for HRC imports into the UK was fully exhausted, India had allocated 94% of its 8,364 mt quota, South Korea 20.3% of its 2,196 mt quota, and the largest, EU-origin quota had allocated 65,700 mt of a total 93,750 mt. Due to uncertainty over final CBAM charges, traders were reluctant to close deals at an outright price on inclusive terms, and buyers and sellers were considering additional contract clauses to share higher-than-expected CBAM costs or to postpone the charges until final costs can be ascertained, drawing mixed reactions. Uncertainty over the safeguards has also increased offers on a DAP basis. Participants also flagged concerns that imports of fabricated steel goods would undermine upstream safeguard measures and could be used to circumvent CBAM from 2027, with a source close to UK ports reporting a large increase in such imports in 2026. Higher fuel costs and import patterns clustered around quota refreshes have caused port backlogs and cyclical delays. [SMM Iron Ore]

U.S. Steel held a groundbreaking ceremony on Friday for its direct reduced iron (DRI) facility at the Big River Steel Works campus in Osceola, Arkansas, a $1.9 billion investment expected to bring about 200 full-time jobs to the site. Site preparation is underway and construction will begin soon. The plant is the newest addition to the Big River Steel Works campus and will sit next to Big River 2. DRI, an ore-based feedstock, will be fed hot directly into Big River 2's electric arc furnaces, supporting reduced-emission steelmaking for the automotive, appliance and solar industries. David Burritt, president and chief executive officer of U.S. Steel, said the investment showcases what the company does best, from mining iron ore in Minnesota to producing advanced steel in Arkansas. Daniel Brown, executive vice president of Advanced Technology Steelmaking and chief operating officer at Big River Steel Works, said the facility gives the company greater control over a critical raw material, strengthens supply reliability and provides more flexibility to produce the advanced steels its customers need. U.S. Steel acquired Big River Steel in 2021. The $3 billion Big River 2 facility began making steel in 2024, and the campus produces more than 6 million tons of steel annually with its four electric arc furnaces. According to a 2024 economic impact analysis, the company supported more than 4,700 jobs and contributed $45 million in state and local tax revenue; its total contributions to community organizations exceeded $2.6 million, the news release said. [SMM Iron Ore]