Market Sentiment Weakens, Iron Ore Prices Drop to a New Low Since March [SMM Commentary]

Published: Mar 19, 2025 17:12

Save

Today, iron ore futures continued their weak downward trend, with the most-traded I2505 contract falling to a new low in March, finally closing at 760, down 2.12% for the day. Traders showed low enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed; and market transaction sentiment remained sluggish. Mainstream transaction prices dropped by 10-15 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. According to an SMM survey, as of March 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.25%, up 0.64 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3909 million mt, up 19,000 mt MoM. Additionally, SMM predicts that pig iron production is expected to increase further in the coming weeks, providing some support for ore prices. However, due to the impact of the trade war and weak confidence in end-use demand, market sentiment remains pessimistic, and iron ore prices continue to face downward pressure. Attention will be on the apparent demand and inventory levels of the five major steel products tomorrow...

Today, iron ore futures continued their weak downward trend. The most-traded I2505 contract fell to a new low for March, closing at 760, with a daily decline of 2.12%. Traders showed low enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed; and market transactions were sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 760-765 yuan/mt, down by 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 770 yuan/mt, down by 15 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to an SMM survey, as of March 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.25%, up 0.64 percentage points WoW. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3909 million mt, up 19,000 mt WoW. During this period, three blast furnaces underwent new maintenance, while four resumed production. Part of the increase came from a blast furnace that resumed production on the 12th. Additionally, SMM predicts that pig iron production is expected to increase further in the coming weeks, providing some support for ore prices. However, due to the impact of the trade war and weak confidence in end-use demand, market sentiment remained pessimistic, and iron ore prices continued to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the apparent demand and inventory levels of the five major steel products tomorrow.

》Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 hours ago

Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.

22 hours ago

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)

Today, the DCE iron ore futures continued to hit bottom today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, down 1.23% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.

22 hours ago

23 hours ago

[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Trading and Inquiries Weakened, Chrome Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday] February 6, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...

23 hours ago