Market Sentiment Weakens, Iron Ore Prices Drop to a New Low Since March [SMM Commentary]

Published: Mar 19, 2025 17:12

Save

Today, iron ore futures continued their weak downward trend, with the most-traded I2505 contract falling to a new low in March, finally closing at 760, down 2.12% for the day. Traders showed low enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed; and market transaction sentiment remained sluggish. Mainstream transaction prices dropped by 10-15 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. According to an SMM survey, as of March 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.25%, up 0.64 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3909 million mt, up 19,000 mt MoM. Additionally, SMM predicts that pig iron production is expected to increase further in the coming weeks, providing some support for ore prices. However, due to the impact of the trade war and weak confidence in end-use demand, market sentiment remains pessimistic, and iron ore prices continue to face downward pressure. Attention will be on the apparent demand and inventory levels of the five major steel products tomorrow...

Today, iron ore futures continued their weak downward trend. The most-traded I2505 contract fell to a new low for March, closing at 760, with a daily decline of 2.12%. Traders showed low enthusiasm for selling; steel mills purchased as needed; and market transactions were sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 760-765 yuan/mt, down by 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 770 yuan/mt, down by 15 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to an SMM survey, as of March 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.25%, up 0.64 percentage points WoW. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3909 million mt, up 19,000 mt WoW. During this period, three blast furnaces underwent new maintenance, while four resumed production. Part of the increase came from a blast furnace that resumed production on the 12th. Additionally, SMM predicts that pig iron production is expected to increase further in the coming weeks, providing some support for ore prices. However, due to the impact of the trade war and weak confidence in end-use demand, market sentiment remained pessimistic, and iron ore prices continued to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the apparent demand and inventory levels of the five major steel products tomorrow.

》Subscribe to view SMM historical spot metal prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

17 mins ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro news disturbances persist, SS consolidates. In the off-season, stainless steel spot prices remain firm, but transactions are sluggish.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Consolidates Amid Persistent Macro News Disturbances; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Firm in Off-Season with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on July 3, SS futures presented an overall pattern of holding up well. US non-farm payrolls data came in below expectations and inflation expectations declined, prompting non-ferrous metals to strengthen overall. SS followed suit and rose in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,600 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the decline in SS futures paused temporarily, while current social inventory pressure on stainless steel was not significant. With steel mills holding prices firm, spot offers remained firm. Most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was quoted at 14,655 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 315-865 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained unchanged; cold-rolled 304/2B mill edge coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the futures trend. US inflation data pulled back, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting valuations of commodities and non-ferrous metals and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industrial side remained bearish, the issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held relatively...

17 mins ago

49 mins ago

[BHP Sees Blast Furnace Decarbonisation as Key Steel Pathway]

BHP said blast furnace decarbonisation remains crucial as over 70% of global steel output still uses the BF-BOF route. The company noted that EAF and DRI expansion faces scrap supply and iron ore quality constraints, while BF emissions can be reduced through recycling, hydrogen injection, CCUS and higher-grade raw materials. With new integrated steel plants costing around 4 billion USD and 85% of China and India’s BF capacity less than 20 years old, full replacement remains difficult in the near term.

49 mins ago

53 mins ago

[SMM Brief] Off-season demand, iron ore prices keep declining.

53 mins ago